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Predictions

What the models see, and what the market charges

Every forecast is recorded before settlement and kept on the record afterwards. Where a human reviewer disagrees with the model you will see both numbers, never one blended figure.

Illustrative data. Prices and model outputs on this page are samples for design purposes during early access — not live forecasts, and not a recommendation to trade.

Anatomy

A prediction, in full

This is the shape every forecast takes: both opinions, the market price, the reasoning, and the risk that would make it wrong.

Economics Sample — illustrative, not a live forecast

Fed cuts rates at the September meeting

Sheppi AI
56%
Human analyst
61%
Market price
63¢
Difference
−7 pts

Key reasoning

Labour-market softening through the summer supports a cut, but the last two inflation prints came in above consensus and the committee has said it wants a run of clean data first.

Biggest risk

A hot core CPI print before the meeting removes the case entirely. This call is one data release away from being wrong.

Reviewed by a macro analyst, who reads the labour data as more decisive than the model does.

Recorded Awaiting settlement
Widest gaps

Where we disagree

Markets ranked by how far our model sits from the price. A large gap is a question worth researching, not a signal to act on.

Markets ranked by how far our model's probability sits from the market price
RankMarketBoard vs modelEdgeVolume
1
OpenAI announces a model called GPT-6 this year
Tech & AI
+10$5.9M
2
Government shutdown before November 1
Politics
+9$12.6M
3
Hottest year on record globally in 2026
Climate
+9$1.8M
4
FDA approves a new Alzheimer's therapy this year
Health
+8$1.4M
5
Fed cuts rates at the September meeting
Economics
−7$8.4M
6
U.S. CPI prints below 2.5% year-over-year
Economics
+6$3.1M
7
Apple ships a foldable device before 2027
Tech & AI
−5$4.3M
8
Named hurricane makes Florida landfall this season
Climate
−4$2.2M
Coverage

Markets we follow

Prices are probabilities: 63¢ means the market thinks it happens about 63% of the time.

15 markets

Model sits 7 points below the board
Economics

Fed cuts rates at the September meeting

63 centsup 2.4 cents this session

Model reads this at 56% — 7 points below the board.

Vol $8.4MModel 56%

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